Climate Change and Fishing Communities in Pemba Island, Tanzania: Perceptions of Extreme Events and Habitat Degradation

Abstract

Coastal communities across sub-Saharan Africa are increasingly vulnerable to climate change, particularly small-scale fishing populations dependent on marine ecosystems for livelihoods and food security. This study explores perceptions of climate-related risks among fishing communities in Pemba Island, Zanzibar, focusing on extreme weather events, sea level rise, and habitat degradation. Using mixed-methods and quantitative data from 361 households across three districts (Micheweni, Chake Chake, and Wete), the research identifies key environmental concerns, economic correlations, and community responses. Results show high awareness of climate impacts, with declining fish stocks (82%) and extreme weather events (68%) being the most commonly reported issues. Statistical analysis reveals significant negative correlations between climate stressors and fishing income, with sea level rise concern (r = −0.41, p = 0.003), habitat degradation (r = −0.38, p = 0.006), and extreme weather frequency (r = −0.32, p = 0.011) all associated with income decline. Regression results indicate these variables significantly predict income loss, with sea level rise concern (β = −0.31, p = 0.022) and extreme weather frequency (β = −0.28, p = 0.012) as the strongest predictors. Chi-square tests highlight district-level differences in adaptation strategies: gear modifications dominated in Micheweni (42%), seasonal migration in Wete (50%), while aquaculture adoption remained low (5–12%, p = 0.485). These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated policy interventions that prioritise community-led adaptation, ecosystem conservation, and climate-resilient fisheries management. The study contributes to understanding how local perceptions align with environmental realities and provides a framework for resilience planning in island ecosystems.