Analysis of the Underlying and Proximate Drivers of Land Conflicts in Post-Conflict Gulu City, Northern Uganda

Abstract

Land conflicts are increasingly common in rapidly urbanising post-conflict cities, where rising land demand interacts with weak governance and evolving tenure systems. This study examined the underlying and proximate drivers of land conflicts and how socio-economic and demographic characteristics influence the likelihood of experiencing the drivers in post-conflict Gulu City, Northern Uganda. A mixed-methods approach was employed, and data were obtained from 416 households using household surveys, 36 key informant interviews, and 06 focus group discussions. Quantitative data were analysed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 27 with descriptive statistics and logistic regression, while qualitative data were thematically analysed. Most (72.6%) respondents identified inadequate formal land registration as the underlying driver, while 82.2% cited rising land demand as a proximate driver. The analysis for this study relied heavily on self-reported data, which may be affected by recall bias. The study demonstrated that level of education, land ownership arrangements, religion, land size, and displacement histories significantly shape respondents’ likelihood of experiencing underlying and proximate drivers of land conflicts, notably loss of customary land tenure custodians, corruption, rising materialism and greed, fraudulent practices, rising land demand, urban expansion, and population growth. The findings demonstrated that increasing competition for land, coupled with inadequate formalisation of land ownership, continues to undermine tenure security and fuel land conflicts in post-conflict Gulu City. It, therefore, recommends that policymakers prioritise affordable and accessible formal land registration systems alongside strengthened urban land-use planning to manage rising land demand and reduce land conflicts in post-conflict Gulu City.