Land-Use Transformations, Population Dynamics and Climate Change: Disentangling the Interdependence in the Coastal Area of Kinondoni District, Tanzania

Abstract

The study examines the impact of rapid urbanisation, population growth, and climate variability on coastal socio-ecological systems in Kinondoni District, Tanzania, from 2023 to 2033. Utilising multi-temporal satellite imagery, GIS, demographic projections, and climate forecasting models like ARIMA and ETS, the research analyzes historical trends and predicts future scenarios regarding land-use and land cover (LULC), temperature, rainfall, and population dynamics. Findings indicate significant urban expansion at the expense of mangrove forests, coastal vegetation, and wetlands, with mangrove cover expected to decline by over 20% due to urban encroachment driven by a population surge from 1.89 million in 2022 to over 3.2 million by 2033. Climate projections suggest rising minimum temperatures and erratic rainfall patterns, exacerbating ecological stress and diminishing carbon sequestration capabilities. The interplay of increasing temperatures, irregular rainfall, and land conversion threatens ecosystem resilience, elevates flood risks, and worsens shoreline erosion. The study highlights feedback loops where population growth leads to land transformation, further increasing climate vulnerability through the loss of natural buffers like mangroves. The implications for urban planning, environmental sustainability, and climate adaptation are significant. The study advocates for coordinated, climate-responsive land management strategies, including integrated coastal zone management, mangrove restoration, climate-resilient urban design, enhanced early warning systems, and sustainable settlement planning. These measures are crucial for preserving ecosystem services, protecting vulnerable communities, and fostering climate-resilient development in Tanzania’s coastal areas.