Push and Pull Triggers of Forced Displacement among Urban Refugees in Nairobi, Kenya

Abstract

Forced displacement has become one of the key development challenges of the 21^st Century, with armed conflict and climate change being some of its key drivers. While more than 85% of forcibly displaced people live in the Global South, data on push and pull factors of migration is limited. This study sought to determine the push and pull factors triggering the migration of urban refugees and asylum seekers to Nairobi, Kenya. The State fragility and institutional theory, the conflict theory, and the push and pull migration theory formed theoretical underpinning. A mixed methods design was used. Quantitative data was collected by administering a structured questionnaire to 288 households while qualitative data was collected through Focus Group Discussions and Key Informant Interviews. Descriptive statistics was applied to analyse quantitative data while qualitative data was thematically analysed.  Findings revealed that food insecurity (84.8%), armed conflict (57.1%), and terrorism (65%) were among the leading push factors of migration, signaling the critical role of climate change in driving forced migration. The main pull factors were peace and political tolerance (94%), expectation of greater respect for human rights (86%), and prospects of resettlement into a third country (83%). Building upon the 1969 Organization of African Union (OAU) Convention governing the specific aspects of refugee problems in Africa, the East African Community (EAC) and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) should develop a legally binding framework addressing the root causes of forced migration in the region-armed conflict, poverty, and climate change.